Posts Tagged ‘Conservative’

SHORT TERM GAIN, LONG TERM PAIN?

Friday, May 14th, 2010

The Liberal Democrat leadership will be feeling pretty pleased with itself this week. A formal coalition with the Tories, which includes five cabinet posts and a commitment to a referendum on voting reform, appears, on the face of it, a decent deal.

However, on managing the budget deficit, Trident and immigration, three major Lib Dem policy planks during the election campaign, Nick Clegg has given the Tories a pass, whilst an open letter from Liverpool Lib Dem leader Warren Bradley articulated the thoughts of many grass roots activists when he basically stated that Nick had ‘sold out’.

The whiff of power, access to the red ministerial boxes and the opportunity to play a role in government decisions has been enough to seduce Clegg and his parliamentary colleagues, but it is hard to see how this brokered alliance can last beyond eighteen months – whatever ‘contracts’ have been signed.

The Lib Dem leadership may argue that, without a genuine offer from Labour, they had no other choice. This, however, is not the case. Their other option, and a better one in the longer term in my view, would have been for them to establish a much looser agreement with the Tories, allowing them to get through a Queen’s Speech and first budget, and then dealing with a minority Conservative government on a policy by policy basis.

Our new Prime Minister David Cameron has been accused by a fair number from his own ranks of giving too much away in the coalition deal, which has been described by some as the ConDem alliance! On the contrary, the deal enables him to accelerate his modernisation of the Tory party, cementing its position as a centre ground, consensus political organisation, and marginalising his right wing rump even further. Although the new partnership with Clegg may fall apart in the medium term, it is hard to imagine longer term damage to his party, however this coalition performs. The Conservatives were the clear winners of the election, comfortably winning the largest number of seats, and were duty bound to form a government. They can claim that they did the deal in the ‘national interest’.

Ironically, Labour have come out of all this in better shape than they had dared hope for six weeks ago. They were not wiped out, have a healthy number of seats in the new parliament, and have got rid of Gordon Brown without an ounce of bloodletting. They can claim that they are now the only genuine opposition party in the country, and they have an impressive line up of leadership candidates to choose from; David Milliband, Ed Milliband, Ed Balls and, perhaps, Andy Burnham. Personally, I would like to see Yvette Cooper throw her hat in the ring, but doubt it will happen.

Putting together a rainbow alliance of ‘progressive’ parties would have been a disaster for Labour. They had lost any legitimate right to govern, and the Brown government looked tired, out of ideas, and frankly, had run out of people too. Under a new leader, they can renew their offer; have great fun in the commons chamber baiting the new unholy alliance, knowing that they have a genuine chance of being back in office at the next General Election. They were expecting a long period in the wilderness. Nick Clegg may well have saved them from that.

TEAM CAMERON ODDS ON TO WIN ELECTION RACE

Friday, April 9th, 2010

And they’re off! As we get set for the start of the big race in Liverpool tomorrow, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are busy trying to get you to back them.

Not since 1992 has the outcome of the General Election been so unpredictable. All the polls are suggesting a close run race, with most commentators saying it will be a photo finish, and a few reckoning that Team Cameron will win by a nose.

After thirteen years in power, Labour are definitely carrying a weighty handicap, and its jockey, Gordon Brown, is not the nimblest of riders that they may have wished for going into the big race. However, he and his party will be pushing experience as the big issue of the day, and hoping that this takes them over the finish line ahead of the other runners and riders.

The Tories message is clearly ‘change’. But in the midst of difficult economic times, will the electorate bet on a novice, or will they see it as too big a gamble to take?

Without a doubt, Nick Clegg, and his Liberal Democrats, is the outsider with long odds being offered for outright victory. Nevertheless, if it is as close a contest as many bookies are indicating, then he may be at the head of any stewards’ inquiry that takes place when all the votes have been counted by May 7th.

For my money, this one is still there for the Conservatives’ taking. Cameron will never have a better chance of becoming Prime Minister, and I’m betting on a Tory majority of between 20-30 seats. Still, it’s all to play for, and, as with the Grand National, there are plenty of hurdles to overcome between now and the end of a contest that is a marathon rather than a sprint.

IS CAMERON KEEGAN IN DISGUISE?

Friday, February 26th, 2010

Regular readers of this blog will be aware that for some considerable time I have been predicting a comfortable victory for the Conservative Party at the next General Election. Not a landslide, as some polling evidence has suggested in recent times, but a win with a decent majority of between 30-40 seats.

This week I spent Wednesday in Westminster, meeting and bumping into a number of MP’s, Ministers and Lords. I arrived just as Prime Ministers Questions had finished, and by all accounts Gordon Brown had won the day. The Conservative members looked a bit glum.

In the country, it may not matter much who wins the weekly knock about between the party Leaders, but to the ‘troops’ it matters – a lot.

Despite Brown taking a bit of a media pounding this week, particularly on the issue of bullying, about which more later, his persona has seemingly improved significantly. He looks and sounds confident, and from the beaten man of 2009 he appears to have transformed into a confident politician who has a chance.

By contrast, Team Cameron appears to be going through a bit of a wobble, and just at the wrong time. It’s a bit like Newcastle United in the Premiership under Kevin Keegan. Runaway leaders until the business end of the season, he and his team lost the plot, having a go at that big bully Ferguson in the process.

The safe and sane money is still on a Tory win in a few weeks time. But even the most ardent of Conservative supporters will know that, rather unexpectedly, they have got a fight on their hands.

On the subject of bullying, I have to say, what a load of tosh. As the Editor of Insider Magazine, Michael Taylor, commented to me at a dinner in Manchester on Tuesday, have people not watched ‘The Thick of It’ on TV. If you haven’t, by the way, you should.

Westminster is not a place for feint hearts. Politics is a rough and tough profession, and you should know that when you sign up for a career in it. The Westminster village and, I imagine number ten, are the most unforgiving of working environments. I found the opposition party’s response to the ‘Brown is a Bully’ allegations rather hypocritical, and that seems to be the mood among those who I have spoken to. And as for the woman from the charity…what a Pratt!

TORIES FAIL TO MAKE REAL BREAKTHROUGH

Thursday, June 11th, 2009

David Cameron was in jubilant mood when he visited his Tory troops in Preston last week, who were celebrating taking control of Lancashire County Council for the first time in almost thirty years.

However, BNP success, on the local and European stage, alongside Labour’s week of turmoil, somewhat masked The Conservative Party’s relatively poor electoral performance.

Given the Governments current crisis, and where we are in the parliamentary cycle, Team Cameron will be concerned that they were unable to poll more than 28 per cent of the national vote.

At this stage of the game, they need to be pulling in 40 per cent to guarantee an election win in 2010.

Of course Tory support was affected by the MP’s expenses scandal. But, so too was Labour’s.

Certainly, the poor Conservative showing did not go unnoticed by backbench Labour MP’s who, on the Monday after the election results had been revealed, were pledging their loyalty to Gordon Brown with renewed hope that they may, after all, have a fighting chance of holding onto their seats if a General Election can be delayed until next spring.

And the Conservatives took another hit this week, when Shadow Health Minister Andrew Lansley let slip that they planned public spending cuts of ten per cent, once again fuelling the argument that the more the Tories talk policy, the less attractive a proposition they become.

The election results, and the ministerial meltdown that surrounded the party, ought to have meant that Labour was being read its last rites by now. However, a week is a long time in politics, and the past seven days have not been great for David Cameron.

Brown, and Labour, live to fight another day.