Archive for April, 2010

THE LEADERS DEBATE – THE FINALE

Friday, April 30th, 2010

The best thing about this third televised debate between the three main party leaders is that there won’t be a fourth.

There was little spark, absolutely nothing new was said, and there was more repetition than on UK Gold.

After this series of rather sanitised contests, the clear winner is Nick Clegg simply because people now know who he is. Gordon Brown was expected, even by Labour supporters, to perform poorly – and he didn’t disappoint. David Cameron, meanwhile, is scratching his head wondering where the 15 point poll lead he came into the campaign with has gone.

The dreaded hung parliament seems inevitable, but, as we all know, a week is a long time in politics.

The Tories and the newspapers that back them will turn their attention to the Liberal Democrats, and in particular focus on what they would describe as their dangerous policies on immigration, Europe and nuclear weapons. The Conservatives will also continue to warn of the debilitating effect coalition government would have on the country.

Where do Labour go from here? They know they can’t win, and for many in the party the thought of a deal with the Lib Dems is about as attractive as a run in with a Rochdale granny. Its campaign is now about damage limitation, and the guy who they couldn’t wait to see the back of a few years ago will be wheeled out to help. Tony Blair will hit the campaign trail, and Labour will hope he can shore up the party’s core vote, and save them from finishing an embarrassing third in the popular vote.

This time next week, Nick Clegg may be the guy who is deciding who the next prime Minister is – and may also be pondering on that old saying ‘be careful what you wish for.’

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LEADERS DEBATE – ACT TWO

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

‘Is Nick Clegg kissable?’ That, I kid you not, was the question Tony Livesey was putting to a live Bristol audience on Radio Five Live following the second televised Leaders Debate last night.

I missed the live version of Brown vs Cameron vs Clegg, Round Two as I was at Downtown Liverpool’s ’sexy’ networking evening. And so, I was keen to hear the latest reviews of the debate on my drive home. Depressingly, what appears to be happening is that rather than engage the electorate in policies and substance, these debates have turned the 2010 General Election into a beauty contest. A much greater number of people will vote on May 6th not because of a political parties programme; not because of the team of ministers the party leader will be working with to deliver that programme; but for the personality of the political leader.

I have heard all the talk about how these debates have energised the campaign, with an extra 250,000 plus people registering to vote, and of course anything that helps connect politics with the wider electorate is a good thing.

But even before we put our political leaders in the equivalent of a political beauty parade, many were complaining that our parliamentary democracy was being damaged by an presidential approach to political campaigning in the UK.

And therein lies the problem. Because in this country we do not elect a President, we elect a government. And with due respect to the Liberal Democrats, do those who are planning to vote for the third party this time around know a single other person in the Lib Dem team other than the ‘kissable’ Nick Clegg? The very unkissable Vince Cable- maybe, but beyond him, no they bloody well don’t.   �

As I said last week, David Cameron must be rueing the day he agreed to these televised spats, because, with just two weeks to go to polling day, the prospect of a hung parliament is looking more likely. Of course, the Tories, if they become the largest single party, may try to govern as a minority government, but how long would that last? The Conservative Party is more Chelsea than Arsenal when it comes to managerial sackings, so Dave can expect a visit from David Davies and Co pretty sharp if he blows the best chance his party have had of winning power in thirteen years.

On the face of it, ‘hung’ is good for Labour. They may be able to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats, and the prize would be a Labour occupant in 10 Downing Street. However, it is unlikely to be Gordon Brown, more likely a personality that is acceptable to Nick and his chums. So, the great British public will continue to be led by a Prime Minister that they did not elect. And in the longer term, is the Labour Party really best served by introducing electoral reform that will result in coalition governments forever? Indeed, I have to ask, is Labour so desperate to cling on to power at any price that it is happy to accept coming third in the popular vote?

Back to the debate, and from the highlights I saw on the TV I think it was a score draw. That is further good news for Clegg, acceptable to Brown and a problem for Cameron.

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THE LEADERS DEBATE

Friday, April 16th, 2010

It was history in the making stuff last night as, for the very first time in UK politics, the three principal party leaders participated in a head-to-head contest on a set that looked more ‘Going For Gold’ than ‘X Factor’. From an entertainment point of view, it would have been great to have Simon Cowell judging the performances of the three performers at the end of the night. As it was, well before the ninety minutes was up, many viewers will have opted for ‘Outnumbered’ on BBC One.

As for the debate itself, I have to say I found it rather sterile. The format was stiff, the lack of engagement with and from the audience gave the whole affair a somewhat plastic feel and the outcome was rather predictable.

As Peter Mandelson commented afterwards, it was David Cameron’s to lose and he lost it. Such were the expectations of the Tory Leader, he really had to wipe the floor with his opponents to impress, and in truth he failed to land a punch. Gordon Brown is not known for his charisma and ability to perform in front of the television cameras, and so Labour can and will claim that he did Okay. And, inevitably, Nick Clegg was a clear winner. No pressure, no expectation and little profile before the evening, he would have had to work hard not to come out on top. He was slick and able to get away with ‘a plague on both your houses’ approach and the Liberal Democrats will be delighted today.

But, with two more debates to come, Clegg will find it more difficult as the other two start to feel the need to target him a little more seriously in the weeks ahead. I don’t think he will find it as easy as he did last night. For Team Cameron, they will be wondering whether it really was such a good idea to sign up for these debates. When their man was twenty plus points clear in the polls at the turn of the year, and it looked like he could walk on water, it was probably a no-brainer. But, with the gap in the polls narrowing by the day, the hung parliament scenario has been looking the more likely outcome – and last night has only heightened that possibility.

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THE LEADERS DEBATE

Friday, April 16th, 2010

What a fabulous week it has been for the city of Manchester in terms of media profile. The first ever Leaders Debate, hosted at the Granada Studios, meant that the whole of the UK media descended on Manchester and helped cement its position as the UK’s second city.

As for the debate itself, I have to say I found it rather sterile. The format was stiff, the lack of engagement with and from the audience gave the whole affair a somewhat plastic feel and the outcome was rather predictable.

As Peter Mandelson commented afterwards, it was David Cameron’s to lose and he lost it. Such were the expectations of the Tory Leader, he really had to wipe the floor with his opponents to impress, and in truth he failed to land a punch. Gordon Brown is not known for his charisma and ability to perform in front of the television cameras, and so Labour can and will claim that he did Okay. And, inevitably, Nick Clegg was a clear winner. No pressure, no expectation and little profile before the evening, he would have had to work hard not to come out on top. He was slick and able to get away with ‘a plague on both your houses’ approach and the Liberal Democrats will be delighted today.

But, with two more debates to come, Clegg will find it more difficult as the other two start to feel the need to target him a little more seriously in the weeks ahead. I don’t think he will find it as easy as he did last night. For Team Cameron, they will be wondering whether it really was such a good idea to sign up for these debates. When their man was twenty plus points clear in the polls at the turn of the year, and it looked like he could walk on water, it was probably a no-brainer. But, with the gap in the polls narrowing by the day, the hung parliament scenario has been looking the more likely outcome – and last night has only heightened that possibility.

I’m expecting a more lively contest at the City of Manchester Stadium tomorrow, where the most important Manchester ‘derby’ in years is taking place. And how interesting that, for the first time in living memory, many Reds of the Liverpool variety are quietly praying for a United victory. A City win tomorrow would surely secure them fourth spot in the Premier League, denying their Merseyside rivals a place in next season’s Champions League. I wonder if there are any United fans who have given up on the league and, actually, wouldn’t mind their ‘noisy neighbours’ getting one over on Liverpool?

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TEAM CAMERON ODDS ON TO WIN ELECTION RACE

Friday, April 9th, 2010

And they’re off! As we get set for the start of the big race in Liverpool tomorrow, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are busy trying to get you to back them.

Not since 1992 has the outcome of the General Election been so unpredictable. All the polls are suggesting a close run race, with most commentators saying it will be a photo finish, and a few reckoning that Team Cameron will win by a nose.

After thirteen years in power, Labour are definitely carrying a weighty handicap, and its jockey, Gordon Brown, is not the nimblest of riders that they may have wished for going into the big race. However, he and his party will be pushing experience as the big issue of the day, and hoping that this takes them over the finish line ahead of the other runners and riders.

The Tories message is clearly ‘change’. But in the midst of difficult economic times, will the electorate bet on a novice, or will they see it as too big a gamble to take?

Without a doubt, Nick Clegg, and his Liberal Democrats, is the outsider with long odds being offered for outright victory. Nevertheless, if it is as close a contest as many bookies are indicating, then he may be at the head of any stewards’ inquiry that takes place when all the votes have been counted by May 7th.

For my money, this one is still there for the Conservatives’ taking. Cameron will never have a better chance of becoming Prime Minister, and I’m betting on a Tory majority of between 20-30 seats. Still, it’s all to play for, and, as with the Grand National, there are plenty of hurdles to overcome between now and the end of a contest that is a marathon rather than a sprint.

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