The start of a New Year is always a good time to gaze into the crystal ball and predict what the next twelve months has in store.
Politically we know that there will be a General Election. Despite recent rumours to the contrary, May is still the most likely election date with Gordon Brown hoping for continuing signs of economic ‘green shoots’ as the months tick by. Although there has been an upturn in Labour support according to recent polls, the Tories are still on course for victory, albeit with a smaller majority than many anticipated. Expect David Cameron to form a Government with around 40 seats in hand. Unless, of course, senior Labour politicians continue to shoot their own party in the foot as Hoon and Hewitt did this week, in which case expect a Tory landslide.
Locally, there could be better news for Labour, with Joe Anderson confident that he can lead Labour to victory for the first time in over a decade in the Liverpool City Council elections. Current Council Leader, Liberal Democrat Warren Bradley, will not give up control of the council without a real scrap-but the odds are against him.
No sooner will we have recovered from the ‘excitement’ of what will have been the longest election campaign in UK history (it started the day after Brown was elevated from Chancellor to Prime Minister two years ago) than the greatest sporting tournament on earth will be underway.
England go to the World Cup Finals in South Africa with a relatively easy group to negotiate and Fabio Cappello will lead his side to the last four, before watching his charges miss out on a place in the Final as some overpaid Premiership Muppet misses a spot kick in the inevitable penalty shoot out.
Domestically, Everton will regain a number of their long term absentees to the squad, and with it the form that so thrilled all Blues last season, and go on to finish a respectable 8th in the Premiership and win the F.A Cup. Across the park, though defeat in the Europa League at the hands of Benfica will hurt, Liverpool’s consolation will be a 4th place Premier League finish and qualification for next seasons Champions League.
Back to business, and I have to say I am optimistic about the year ahead. I expect to see the banks genuinely open for business by the summer having spent more than a year replenishing their balance sheets. At some stage banks themselves need to start to lend money again – it’s their business. They will undoubtedly be more risk averse than in the previous decade, but maybe that is no bad thing.
I think we will see a reasonably strong recovery in the property sector, following its spectacular fall in 2009. Mortgage lending is already up and, though, again, we are unlikely to see a return to the wildly inflated property valuations of the noughties, stability to the market and the increase for demand for housing should prevail.
Retail will continue to struggle, not helped by the earlier than necessary return to the 17.5% VAT regime, but again there are signs that the manufacturing sector, or what is left of it, has bottomed out.
The financial markets were in good health at close of play last year; and new media, IT, eco focused and lifestyle businesses will be anticipating a successful 2010. For Insolvency Practitioners, life will be busier than ever as it is , bizarrely, always the way that more companies go to the wall as we come out of recession than when we are in one.
The big unknown at the moment is how much of an economic impact the inevitable cuts in public expenditure will have. Those who supply local government, the NHS or other public sector organisations will be concerned. If we are too hasty in trying to close the national budget deficit, it may lead to a destabilising of what is, lets face it, a fragile recovery.
Meanwhile, the Chief Executive of the Northwest Development Agency, Steven Broomhead, and Business Link boss Peter Watson, will remain at the forefront of economic and business support across the region as we slowly move out of recession. These two individuals deserve enormous credit for the way they have led their respective organisations during the economic downturn.
Other eye catching happenings during 2010 include: X Factor stars Jedward replacing Sir Alan Sugar as ‘Enterprise Czar’; Katie Price and Peter Andre presenting to Downtown’s Business Week on ‘how to fool the media all of the time’; and Merseyside Local Authorities unanimously agreeing a coherent and dynamic economic strategy for the city region, including support for the long awaited Tram.
Have a great 2010. Let’s hope it’s a good one.
